Indian economy is expected to grow from $4 trillion to $10 trillion by 2040. It will be 3rd largest economy by 2030 from 4th currently.
Indian IT software + hardware market expected to grow from ~$245 billion to ~ $500 billion over the next 10 years.
Quantum computing share in India will grow from ~ $10 million currently to ~ $300- $500 by 2030. It is expected to have a potential to grow to ~ $2 – 5 billion by 2040
1. Near-Term (2025–2030): The Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) Era
We are currently in the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era, where quantum computers with 50–1,000 qubits are available but still lack full error correction. Despite this, quantum advantage is emerging for specific high-value use cases, especially where classical systems hit performance walls.
Quantum advantage in niche tasks: We may soon see real-world problems solved faster by quantum computers than classical ones—especially in:
- Quantum chemistry (e.g., drug discovery)
- Quantum systems are beginning to simulate molecular structures and reactions more efficiently than classical computers. Drug discovery workflows can be accelerated by modeling molecular interactions (50–150 atoms) that classical systems can’t handle. There is a huge potential here to cut development costs and time, especially in early-stage discovery and molecular optimization.
- Financial and business optimization problems
- Financial services represent another high-potential application area. Key applications include portfolio optimization, risk analysis, fraud detection, asset pricing, and capital allocation, leveraging quantum computing's superior handling of uncertainty in complex decision-making scenarios. The technology's parallel processing capabilities offer significant advantages for analyzing large datasets and modeling complex financial instruments in real-time.
2. Mid-Term (2030–2040):
Over the medium term, there would be more progress towards building Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computers
- Error correction becomes scalable: A major breakthrough would be fault-tolerant quantum computing—handling errors without crashing the computation.
- Post-quantum cryptography: Quantum machines could break traditional encryption (e.g., RSA). Classical systems will shift to quantum-resistant algorithms.
- A shift to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) will become mandatory across sectors (banking, defense, government). Startups working on quantum-resistant algorithms and quantum key distribution (QKD) will gain massive traction.
- The Indian government (via MeitY, DRDO, CDAC) is already exploring quantum-safe encryption protocols, making this a key market for early enterprise advisory services.